Reds seek revenge in clash with streaking Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Edinson Volquez aims to start another Cincinnati win streak when the Reds visit Miller Park tonight for the second test of a four-game series with the Milwaukee Brewers.

Cincinnati had beaten the Brewers six straight times before Monday's opener, when pinch-hitter Jim Edmonds homered with two outs in the eighth inning after just missing a go-ahead shot on the previous pitch, lifting Milwaukee to a 3-2 comeback victory over the Reds.

Rickie Weeks hit a two-run homer in the third inning as Milwaukee won its fifth straight game to match a season-best streak after trailing 2-0 early.

Edmonds has been unable to play the field since his right Achilles' tendon tightened Saturday night, but he didn't need to run hard after his at-bat against Bronson Arroyo (10-6) in the eighth. He first hit a big blast off a fastball, dropping the bat only to watch his shot sail foul. He then sent the next pitch over the Reds' bullpen in right-center field.

Brewers reliever Carlos Villanueva (1-0) pitched the eighth and rookie closer John Axford rebounded from his first blown save of the season on Friday to notch his 15th save in 16 attempts, working around a one-out double to pinch- hitter Laynce Nix.

The Reds trail the first-place St. Louis Cardinals by a game in the National League's Central Division and lead the third-place Brewers by seven games.

Volquez, a 17-game winner and an NL All-Star in 2008, was shelved for most of the 2009 and the initial half of 2010 after undergoing ligament replacement surgery in his right elbow. He returned with six strong innings in an 8-1 defeat of Colorado in his season debut on July 17, but lasted less than three innings while being tagged for five hits and six runs in a 7-1 loss to Washington five days later.

Lifetime against Milwaukee, Volquez, who was traded from Texas for AL MVP candidate Josh Hamilton, is 2-1 in four starts with a 6.35 earned run average over 22 2/3 innings.

For the Brewers, Mexican righty Yovani Gallardo faces the Reds for the second time this season and the seventh time overall in his 74th major-league appearance.

Gallardo got a no-decision against the Reds on May 17 in Cincinnati, allowing four hits and a run over six innings in a game Milwaukee lost, 6-3. He did issue six walks in that game, but struck out five.

The 24-year-old, a 13-game winner last season, has won three of his last four starts overall while allowing 22 hits and 10 runs in 23 2/3 innings. He's 2-1 with a 3.50 earned run average overall against the Reds.

Last night's contest was the third meeting between the teams of 2010. The Reds swept a brief two-game set from Milwaukee in Cincinnati from May 17-18.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.